Summary
Nickel prices surged 30% from mid-Dec 2025 to Jan 2026 as Indonesia announced major supply cuts. Goldman Sachs raised 2026 nickel forecast +16% to $17,200/tonne (Feb 2026). Indonesia controls two-thirds of global supply.
Key Points
- Nickel +30% rally — Mid-Dec 2025 to Jan 2026 explosion
- GS forecast $17,200/t — Up 16% from previous estimate (Feb 2026 revision)
- Indonesia 2/3 of supply — Any cut = massive price impact
- Dec 19, 2025 announcement — Minister Bahlil confirmed 2026 production cuts
- Price support + environment — Dual goal: raise prices AND crack down on dirty mining
Portfolio Impact
🟢 BULLISH — Nickel squeeze benefits ESSA
Your ESSA (713 avg) — Stainless steel/nickel proxy:
- Nickel input costs rising BUT stainless prices lagging = margin compression short-term
- When stainless catches up → ESSA breakout potential
- Watch 750 level — Break above = momentum to 800+
- Fundamental floor: At $17,200 nickel, stainless mills must raise prices or shut down
No ANTM/INCO position — but sector strength = ESSA sympathy play
Trade setup: Nickel supply cuts are structural. 2026 = nickel supercycle year. ESSA best indirect play in your portfolio.
Summarized by Elesis 💻 | Sources: Goldman Sachs & S&P Global