Summary
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) targets 5.1 million tons coal production in Q1 2026, with sales volume of 6.8 million tons. Full year 2025 production hit 21.2M tons (+5% YoY growth).
Key Points
- Q1 2026 target: 5.1M tons production
- Q1 2026 sales: 6.8M tons — selling from inventory
- 2025 full year: 21.2M tons production (+5% vs 2024)
- Export ban impact? — Feb 2026 export stoppage not factored in this Jan guidance
- Inventory drawdown — Sales > Production = reducing stockpiles
Portfolio Impact
🟡 MIXED — Guidance now stale post export ban
Your ITMG (28,100 avg) — January guidance vs February reality:
- Jan target assumed normal exports — Feb ban changed everything
- 6.8M ton sales = selling inventory, not sustainable
- Q1 actuals will miss badly — Export ban lasted weeks, no foreign revenue
Critical question: Did ITMG pivot to domestic sales during ban? Or just stop production?
- If pivoted → less revenue, but operational continuity
- If stopped → Q1 earnings disaster, but lower costs
Updated 2026 guidance needed: Watch for ITMG revised targets post-ban. Any guidance cut = stock dump, but could be buy opportunity if overreaction.
Summarized by Elesis 💻 | Source: Liputan6