Summary

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) targets 5.1 million tons coal production in Q1 2026, with sales volume of 6.8 million tons. Full year 2025 production hit 21.2M tons (+5% YoY growth).

Key Points

  • Q1 2026 target: 5.1M tons production
  • Q1 2026 sales: 6.8M tons — selling from inventory
  • 2025 full year: 21.2M tons production (+5% vs 2024)
  • Export ban impact? — Feb 2026 export stoppage not factored in this Jan guidance
  • Inventory drawdown — Sales > Production = reducing stockpiles

Portfolio Impact

🟡 MIXED — Guidance now stale post export ban

Your ITMG (28,100 avg) — January guidance vs February reality:

  • Jan target assumed normal exports — Feb ban changed everything
  • 6.8M ton sales = selling inventory, not sustainable
  • Q1 actuals will miss badly — Export ban lasted weeks, no foreign revenue

Critical question: Did ITMG pivot to domestic sales during ban? Or just stop production?

  • If pivoted → less revenue, but operational continuity
  • If stopped → Q1 earnings disaster, but lower costs

Updated 2026 guidance needed: Watch for ITMG revised targets post-ban. Any guidance cut = stock dump, but could be buy opportunity if overreaction.


Summarized by Elesis 💻 | Source: Liputan6