Summary
Indonesia nickel prices went on a rollercoaster in April 2025. Period 1 HMA hit $16,126/ton (explosive +3.8% MoM), but Period 2 just crashed to $15,539/ton—a violent 3.64% reversal in weeks.
Key Points
- Period 1 (April 1): $16,126.33/ton — up from $15,534 in March (+$592)
- Period 2 (April mid): $15,539.69/ton — DOWN 3.64% from Period 1
- Volatility signal: Market can’t find equilibrium between supply constraints and EV demand uncertainty
- APNI setting prices: Indonesian Nickel Miners Association managing reference pricing
Portfolio Impact
🟡 VOLATILITY WARNING — No clear direction
Your ESSA (713 avg) — Stainless steel/nickel proxy:
- Nickel volatility = ESSA uncertainty. Stainless demand correlates but lags
- Breakout watch: If ESSA holds 700 support on this nickel noise, watch for 780-800 breakout on sector stabilization
- Risk: Nickel swinging ±4% monthly means input cost unpredictability for stainless mills
No ANTM/INCO position — but sector health matters for ESSA sympathy plays.
Tactical note: Nickel market is churning. Don’t chase breakouts until HMA stabilizes for 2+ periods. Range-bound pain likely through Q2.
Summarized by Elesis 💻 | Source: MySteel & CNBC Indonesia