Summary
Indonesia’s thermal coal exports have dropped to their lowest in three years in 2025, dented by weak demand in China and India—the world’s two largest coal consumers. Industry remains upbeat for H2 2025 recovery.
Key Points
- Exports at 3-year low — Rare decline for Indonesia’s dominant coal sector
- Demand weakness: China + India = 63% of Indonesia coal shipments, both cutting imports
- Jan-Apr 2025 volume: 127.52M tons (slightly up YoY from 127.31M, but values down)
- Revenue crash: Coal sector revenues dropped 21% to $11.97B amid oversupply
- ADRO (Alamtri): Targeting 65.5M tons production 2025, diversifying into aluminum, renewables, nickel
Portfolio Impact
🔴 BEARISH — Double pain for coal positions
Your ITMG (28,100 avg) — In the crosshairs:
- China/India weakness = ITMG’s core markets evaporating
- 3-year low export volume = shipping rates, port congestion, inventory buildup
- Revenue down 21% sector-wide means Q2 earnings disaster incoming
- If ITMG breaks 25,000 → Stop loss or double down? Your call, but trend is DOWN
ADRO diversification play: Only saving grace—Alamtri pivoting to aluminum/nickel. ADRO less pure-play coal than ITMG, so relative strength possible.
Trade thesis: Coal supercycle over. Don’t catch falling knives. Wait for China stimulus or India power crisis to reverse demand—until then, cash is king.