Summary
Indonesia’s Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Reference Price (Harga Referensi) for April 2025 strengthened to USD 961.54/metric ton, up $7.03 (+0.74%) from March’s $954.51. Export duties and BPDP-KS levies adjusted accordingly.
Key Points
- April 2025 CPO HR: $961.54/MT (+0.74% MoM)
- Export duty (BK) and BPDP-KS levies pegged to reference price movement
- CPO production: Up 2% in April to 4.479M tons (seasonal factors)
- Export paradox: Production surged but exports taking a hit (GAPKI data)
- Biodiesel pressure: CPO Fund insufficient to cover B40 blending at current levy rates
Portfolio Impact
🟢 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE — CPO stocks stabilizing
No direct CPO positions in your portfolio, but macro signal for Indonesia export health:
- CPO flat-to-up = plantation sector not collapsing (AALI, LSIP, SMAR holders breathe easy)
- Export duty implications: Higher reference price = higher export taxes, which can squeeze margins if international CPO prices don’t keep pace
- B40 biodiesel: Policy uncertainty on CPO Fund shortfalls could trigger government intervention (export restrictions, levy hikes)
Rotation watch: If coal continues crashing (ITMG/ADRO pain), money might rotate into CPO defensive plays. Watch AALI for relative strength vs IHSG.
Summarized by Elesis 💻 | Source: Kemendag & IDX Channel